Oct 22, 2024 |
Life on the Edge, a new climate change prediction tool that combines genomic, geographic and environmental data, has now been created by international researchers. The demonstration was carried out on frog species found in Mozambique and other East African countries.
The new model provides a deeper insight into the vulnerability of wildlife populations to global change. Published in the scientific journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution, this innovative tool aims to help researchers and conservation professionals understand and predict how the changing environment could impact the populations of various species, using an effective integration of different types of data.
To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, the researchers tested the tool on three East African frog species - Afrixalus fornasini, A. delicatus and A. sylvaticus - to predict the vulnerability of their populations in Tanzania, Kenya, Malawi and Mozambique, as well as on two European bat species.
As Phys.orgreports, the researchers developed the Life on the Edge tool to respond to one of the main shortcomings of traditional assessments of vulnerability to climate change. These assessments tend to focus on the level of the species as a whole, neglecting the variations within each species, whose populations may be the first signs of decline. The new model offers a more detailed approach, assessing vulnerability at the population level.
Life on the Edge uses population-specific genomic data, flexible spatial and environmental models that can be applied to any species or geographical region. The predictions generated by this tool help provide crucial information for prioritising conservation efforts and halting the decline of specific populations.
To build this tool, the researchers established a set of standardised metrics, starting with the prediction of each population's ‘exposure’. This metric is based on species distribution models (SDMs), using known occurrences and predicted changes in environmental conditions, both current and future.
In addition, georeferenced genomic data is used to measure the neutral genetic diversity of each population (called ‘neutral sensitivity’) and identify genomic regions involved in climate adaptation, allowing an estimate of the ‘adaptive sensitivity’ of populations.
Each of the metrics offers a unique insight into population vulnerability, which can then be combined to form a global measure of ‘population vulnerability’. This measure is essential for identifying populations in need of prioritised conservation action.
The project, led by the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) in Leipzig, involved an international team of scientists from Europe (UK, Netherlands, Germany) and the United States.
Photo: Nature (Afrixalus fornasini)
